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Model 01 · The ACDP Framework The Models / In Series
Model ID M-01 · Version v0.4 · Updated 2026-04-26
The Models Series

The ACDP Model.

By Tyler T. Jung
·
Model ID M-01
·
Reading time ~52 min
·
Version v0.4

The AI discourse is split between apocalypse and utopia. Neither helps you make decisions. The ACDP Model maps how AI actually displaces employment — not as a single wave, but through five distinct, observable stages, each with its own logic, its own winners, and its own decision window. This is not a forecast. It is a diagnostic — for anyone navigating career, capital, or business choices in the AI wave.

A five-stage diagnostic framework for the AI wave — when employment actually breaks, who gets hit first, and where the decision windows close.

Stages 01 & 02 live
FIG. 01 / DISPLACEMENT M-01 · v0.4 PAINTED · ARCHIVAL

The five stages, at a glance.

Each stage has a logic, a tell, and a decision window. Release dates below are essay publication order, not a displacement forecast.

Fig. 01 · The Displacement Curve
Diagnostic stages · not a calendar prediction
↓ DECISION WINDOW where positions are won 01 Experimental 02 Infiltration 03 Compression 04 Restructuring 05 New Equilibrium EARLY LATE ↑ DISPLACEMENT
Release order, not a displacement forecast.
Stage 01
Experimental
Curiosity, pilots, theater
Essay release: May 2026
Stage 02
Infiltration
Quiet adoption, asymmetric output
Essay release: June 2026
Stage 03
Compression
Margin collapse, headcount squeeze
Essay release: July 2026
Stage 04
Restructuring
New org charts, capital reallocation
Essay release: August 2026
Stage 05
New Equilibrium
Stable winners, new defaults
Essay release: September 2026
Pick your reading path

Three ways into the model
start where you stand.

The ACDP Model is a single framework, but it answers different questions depending on what you have at stake. Choose your entry point. The other two will still be there.

01.
For professionals

If your company is deploying AI tools.

You want to know: which skills are appreciating? Which are depreciating?

Start with Chapter 02 · Infiltration
02.
For founders & investors

If your business, or the ones you're watching, is embracing AI.

You want to know: how will headcount shift? How will compensation change? And how to revalue legacy businesses?

Start with Chapter 03 · Compression
03.
For career changers

If your old track is closing.

You want to know: which pivot is safest? Which is most dangerous?

Start with Chapter 04 · Restructuring
About this series

Models, not opinions. Frameworks, not forecasts.

Maverick publishes one analytical model at a time. Each model is a lens, a way of organizing what is actually happening so you can act before consensus arrives. The ACDP Model is the first.

01 / Why a model

Because takes are cheap and frameworks compound.

Hot takes age in days. A model, if it's right, keeps cutting through noise for years. ACDP gives you five questions to ask of any industry, any role, any portfolio position, in any week of the next decade.

02 / Who it's for

Operators, allocators, and people whose career is in the blast radius.

Founders deciding what to build. Investors deciding where to deploy. Executives reading the wrong tea leaves. And anyone watching their industry change shape and wondering whether to lean in, hedge, or leave.

03 / What you'll get

Five chapters, eleven essays, two working diagnostics.

Not predictions. Not vibes. A stage-by-stage map of how AI displaces employment through Experimental, Infiltration, Compression, Restructuring, and New Equilibrium, with reading tools designed to make each stage legible while it is still unfolding.

The wave is not the question. The stage is.
Most strategic mistakes are made by people reading the right industry at the wrong stage.
— Tyler T. Jung
Ch.01
Stage One
Essay release: May 2026

Experimental.

AI enters as a curiosity. Isolated pilots, internal demos, headline-grabbing partnerships that go nowhere. Most experiments fail. The signal is in the ones that survive — and in what they reveal about which tasks are genuinely automatable versus merely demoable.

Ch.02
Stage Two
Essay release: June 2026

Infiltration.

AI stops being a project and becomes a tool. It enters through procurement, through new hires who refuse to work without it, through competitors who quietly ship faster. By the time leadership notices, infiltration is already advanced.

Ch.03
Stage Three
Essay release: July 2026

Compression.

The squeeze begins. Margins collapse as AI-augmented competitors undercut pricing. Headcount contracts. Timelines shrink. This is where most people first feel AI disruption personally — and where the decision window is narrowest.

Ch.04
Stage Four
Essay release: August 2026

Restructuring.

Surviving organizations rebuild from the ground up. New roles emerge. Capital flows to new structures. The org chart of 2020 is unrecognizable. This is where strategic positioning matters most — and where late entrants pay full price.

Ch.05
Stage Five
Essay release: September 2026

New Equilibrium.

The dust settles. New industry structures stabilize. The winners are visible. The question shifts from "how to survive" to "how to thrive in the new landscape." This is where long-term positioning is locked in, for a decade.

How the model was built

Five stages, derived from three industry cycles already complete.

Maverick
Founder · Analyst

Maverick publishes diagnostic frameworks for the AI wave. Independent. Unsponsored. Built on the conviction that the cost of bad models, in this decade, will be measured in careers and capital — not opinions.

The ACDP Model did not start as a thesis. It started as a pattern — first noticed in legal services, then in customer support, then in mid-tier media. Three industries, three different timelines, the same five stages.

What follows is not a forecast. It is a generalization, derived from cases where the displacement cycle is far enough along to read clean. The point of a model is not to be right about the next news cycle. It is to give you a question worth asking in every news cycle for the next ten years.

If a stage in the model is not falsifiable inside its own chapter, the chapter does not ship. If a sector contradicts the model, the model gets revised — in public, with a versioned changelog. Diagnostic clarity, not predictive theater.

Versioned in public

The model is alive — and updates when reality contradicts it.

Every revision is dated, named, and visible. If a stage breaks, you find out here first.

v0.4.0
Apr 22, 2026

Stage Two renamed: "Adoption" → "Infiltration"

Reader feedback and three months of field reading made it clear: "adoption" implies a managed decision. What actually happens in Stage Two is asymmetric, sub-organizational, and largely unmanaged. The new label fits the mechanism.

Major
v0.3.2
Apr 04, 2026

New diagnostic: the Pilot Field Test

Added a five-question diagnostic to Chapter 01 for separating Stage One signal from Stage One theater. Drawn from the survivor pattern in the original "Why Most AI Pilots Fail" essay.

Minor
v0.3.1
Mar 27, 2026

Compression timeline narrowed to 6–18 months

Earlier draft proposed "12–24 months" between full Infiltration and observable Compression. Recalibrated using customer support and mid-tier media as cleanest reference cycles.

Calibration
v0.3.0
Mar 14, 2026

First public release of the ACDP Model

Five stages locked. Chapters 01 and 02 published. Open contradiction policy: any sector that breaks the model is documented in the next changelog, not buried.

Release
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